Because there is no obvious answer to what is going on in an adaptive challenge, and even defining the problem is contentious, the leader needs an experimental mindset: commit fully to an intervention while not becoming wedded to it, stay open to being wrong and to unanticipated possibilities, and let what each experiment shows decide the next step or a correction mid-course. Adaptive leadership is will plus skill: a skilfully designed intervention improves the odds of success and of the leader's survival.
The graph holds this control, the 0 it maps to, and the evidence behind each claim, over MCP and REST.