The change effort starts with leaders examining market and competitive realities (competitive situation, market position, technology trends, financial performance) and identifying and frankly discussing crises, potential crises and major opportunities, communicating them broadly and dramatically, so that the status quo comes to seem more dangerous than the unknown. Kotter's threshold is that about three quarters of management are honestly convinced business as usual is unacceptable; outsiders (analysts, customers, consultants) can help bring unwelcome facts. In the 2014 version the urgency is built around a Big Opportunity statement that appeals to heads and hearts, connects an external change to a special capability of the organisation, names the stakes of success and failure, and is used to raise a large volunteer army; urgency must be sustained, not generated once.
The graph holds this control, the 0 it maps to, and the evidence behind each claim, over MCP and REST.